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Reading vs Peterborough — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
T. Dele-Bashiru 88', 67'
J. Swift 64'
N. Thompson 74'
9/14/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Reading56%
×Draw23%
Peterborough21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.83
Peterborough
1.01

Reading creates 81% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 25 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Peterborough
0.68

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Peterborough
2.28

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Reading or draw
79%
Reading or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
44%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
32%
Peterborough wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
84%
Reading 2+ goals
54%
Reading 3+ goals
28%
Peterborough 1+ goals
64%
Peterborough 2+ goals
27%
Peterborough 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
73%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Peterborough defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.83

Peterborough attack 0.68 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Reading scores more
56%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
21%

Reading at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
T. Dele-BashiruReadingReading · M
8.7

Match Events

45+3'
Frankie Kent
45+4'
T. Holmes← L. Moore
64'
J. Swift
65'
J. Hoilett← A. Halilović
65'
J. Taylor← C. Coventry
67'
T. Dele-Bashiru↳ G. Puşcaş
74'
N. Thompson↳ J. Ward
81'
S. Szmodics← J. Marriott
86'
J. Tomlinson← D. Butler
88'
T. Dele-Bashiru↳ J. Swift
89'
D. Tetek← O. Ejaria

Possession

48%Reading

Shots

12Reading

Pass accuracy

51%Reading

Statistics

ReadingPeterborough
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots6
3Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots6
6On Target3
1Off Target2
5Blocked1
4Inside Box2
8Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
438Total Passes462
371Accurate Passes378
85%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Peterborough

Reading beat Peterborough 3-1 in Championship on September 14, 2021.

Goals: J. Swift (64'), T. Dele-Bashiru (67', 88'), N. Thompson (74').

Peterborough controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.