Reading 1–0 Northampton: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

K. Ehibhatiomhan 65'

10/21/2025

League One · Round 7Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading53%

×Draw24%

Northampton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

Reading

1.69

Northampton

1.00

Reading creates 69% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

1.58

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Reading

1.58

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

78%

Reading or Northampton

76%

Draw or Northampton

47%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

29%

Northampton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

82%

Reading 2+ goals

50%

Reading 3+ goals

24%

Northampton 1+ goals

63%

Northampton 2+ goals

26%

Northampton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

71%

Northampton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Northampton attack 0.94 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Reading scores more

53%

level

24%

Northampton scores more

22%

Reading at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

P. O'Connor

Reading · D

8.2

Match Events

38'

D. Kyerewaa← M. Ritchie

55'

Derrick Williams

64'

A. Yiadom← K. Abrefa

64'

K. Doyle← B. Elliott

65'

K. Ehibhatiomhan↳ P. Lane

72'

K. Swyer← M. Jacobs

72'

J. Wormleighton← J. Willis

75'

J. R. Dorsett A.← D. Williams

75'

M. O'Mahony← P. Lane

87'

Matty Jacob

88'

J. Perkins← T. Fornah

89'

K. Edwards← N. Guinness-Walker

90+2'

Daniel Kyerewaa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingNorthampton

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots5

8Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots5

5On Target1

6Off Target1

3Blocked3

10Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

409Total Passes313

292Accurate Passes198

71%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3