Northampton 0–2 Reading: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

W. Keane 58'

J. Marriott 55'

1/31/2026

League One · Round 30Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Northampton35%

×Draw23%

Reading42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.72

Northampton

1.56

Reading

1.72

Reading creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

1.55

1.89

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Northampton

1.35

Reading

1.55

allows per match

Northampton

1.89

Reading

1.78

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Northampton-0.18scores less

Reading+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

58%

Northampton or Reading

77%

Draw or Reading

65%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

17%

Reading wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

79%

Northampton 2+ goals

46%

Northampton 3+ goals

21%

Reading 1+ goals

82%

Reading 2+ goals

51%

Reading 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Reading (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Reading away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.35 + Reading defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Reading attack 1.55 + Northampton defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more

35%

level

23%

Reading scores more

42%

Reading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Campbell

Northampton · M

8.3

Match Events

37'

52'

55'

57'

58'

W. Keane↳ L. Wing

62'

L. Fraser← C. Savage

63'

M. Dyche← C. McCarthy

63'

C. McGeehan← J. Perkins

67'

Cameron McGeehan

75'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← P. Lane

75'

M. Ritchie← K. Doyle

78'

J. Vale← K. Swyer

89'

89'

90+4'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonReading

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots10

1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.14

9Corners3

5Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target6

5Off Target0

4Blocked4

13Inside Box9

1Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

293Total Passes433

209Accurate Passes332

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1