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Reading vs Northampton — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
K. Ehibhatiomhan 65'
3/29/2024League OneLeague One · Round 41Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading53%
×Draw24%
Northampton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.69
Northampton
1.00

Reading creates 69% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Northampton
0.94

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Northampton
1.79

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
78%
Reading or Northampton
76%
Draw or Northampton
47%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
29%
Northampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
82%
Reading 2+ goals
50%
Reading 3+ goals
24%
Northampton 1+ goals
63%
Northampton 2+ goals
26%
Northampton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
71%
Northampton (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Northampton attack 0.94 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Reading scores more
53%
level
24%
Northampton scores more
22%

Reading at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
Joel PereiraReadingReading · G
8.9

Match Events

4'
Emmanuel Monthe
22'
Ben Elliott
59'
K. Ehibhatiomhan← B. Elliott
65'
K. Ehibhatiomhan
66'
S. McWilliams← A. McGowan
75'
K. Abrefa← J. Dorsett
75'
T. Springett← J. Sowerby
76'
T. Simpson← L. Appéré
82'
K. Bowie← S. Hoskins
82'
A. Koiki← E. Monthe
90'
P. Mukairu← O. Azeez

Possession

54%Reading

Shots

13Reading

Pass accuracy

51%Reading

Statistics

ReadingNorthampton
Overview
54%Possession46%
13Total Shots19
5Corners3
11Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots19
2On Target8
8Off Target5
3Blocked6
8Inside Box11
5Outside Box8
Passing
54%Possession46%
477Total Passes406
353Accurate Passes284
74%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
8Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

League One: Reading 1–0 Northampton

Reading beat Northampton 1-0 in League One on March 29, 2024.

Goals: K. Ehibhatiomhan (65').

Reading controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.