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Reading vs Northampton — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
Mamadi Camará 87'
C. Savage 75'
S. Smith 28'
H. Knibbs 5'
T. Eaves 81'
12/26/2024League OneLeague One · Round 22Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading53%
×Draw24%
Northampton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.69
Northampton
1.00

Reading creates 69% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 99 away

creates per match

Reading
1.58
Northampton
0.94

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Northampton
1.79

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw
78%
Reading or Northampton
76%
Draw or Northampton
47%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
29%
Northampton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
82%
Reading 2+ goals
50%
Reading 3+ goals
24%
Northampton 1+ goals
63%
Northampton 2+ goals
26%
Northampton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
71%
Northampton (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.69

Northampton attack 0.94 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Reading scores more
53%
level
24%
Northampton scores more
22%

Reading at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. SmithReadingReading · F
8.2

Match Events

5'
H. Knibbs↳ S. Smith
28'
S. Smith↳ L. Wing
45'
Tom Eaves
63'
A. Odimayo← L. McCarron
73'
N. Dobson← W. Hondermarck
75'
C. Savage↳ Mamadi Camará
80'
J. Wareham← S. Smith
80'
A. Garcia← A. Kanu
81'
T. Eaves
85'
F. Obiagwu← A. McGowan
85'
J. Baldwin← T. Eyoma
87'
Mamadi Camará↳ A. Garcia
90+3'
Cameron McGeehan
90'
A. Ahmed← C. Campbell
90'
T. Rushesha← C. Savage
90+1'
H. Dean← H. Knibbs

Possession

62%Reading

Shots

8Reading

Pass accuracy

55%Reading

Statistics

ReadingNorthampton
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots7
4Corners5
10Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots7
5On Target1
3Off Target4
0Blocked2
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
416Total Passes249
316Accurate Passes156
76%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides5

Match Recap: Reading vs Northampton

Reading beat Northampton 4-1 in League One on December 26, 2024.

Goals: H. Knibbs (5'), S. Smith (28'), C. Savage (75'), T. Eaves (81'), Mamadi Camará (87').

Reading controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.