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RB Leipzig U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
3/5/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

RB Leipzig U1954%
×Draw20%
Magdeburg U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RB Leipzig U19
2.42
Magdeburg U19
1.66

RB Leipzig U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

RB Leipzig U19
2.54
Magdeburg U19
2.02

allows per match

RB Leipzig U19
1.29
Magdeburg U19
2.30

finishing

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par
Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RB Leipzig U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

RB Leipzig U19 or draw
74%
RB Leipzig U19 or Magdeburg U19
80%
Draw or Magdeburg U19
46%

Winning margin

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
34%
Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
91%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
69%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
43%
Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
81%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
49%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RB Leipzig U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.29 · 72 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.54 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.42

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

RB Leipzig U19 scores more
54%
level
20%
Magdeburg U19 scores more
26%

RB Leipzig U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RB Leipzig U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Magdeburg U19 beat RB Leipzig U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1 in Leipzig.