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Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
CANC
11:00
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
11/28/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1937%
×Draw21%
RB Leipzig U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg U19
1.92
RB Leipzig U19
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

creates per match

Magdeburg U19
2.37
RB Leipzig U19
2.16

allows per match

Magdeburg U19
2.00
RB Leipzig U19
1.47

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw
57%
Magdeburg U19 or RB Leipzig U19
79%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
63%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
19%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
85%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
57%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
30%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
87%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
61%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
46%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more
37%
level
21%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
43%

RB Leipzig U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — Match Preview

Magdeburg U19 face RB Leipzig U19 on November 28, 2020 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Magdeburg U19 host RB Leipzig U19 at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.