Magdeburg U19 0–4 RB Leipzig U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

RB Leipzig U19

S. Ba 90'

E. Uhlmann 54'

M. Ibrahimi 49'

D. Lelle 32'

8/27/2021

DFB Junioren Pokal · 1st RoundPlatz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Magdeburg U1910%

×Draw13%

RB Leipzig U1976%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

3.25

Magdeburg U19

1.17

RB Leipzig U19

3.25

RB Leipzig U19 creates 178% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.83

3.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

1.00

RB Leipzig U19

2.83

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

3.67

RB Leipzig U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

24%

Magdeburg U19 or RB Leipzig U19

87%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

90%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

4%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

69%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

33%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

11%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

96%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

83%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

12%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 1.00 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.83 + Magdeburg U19 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

10%

level

13%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

76%

RB Leipzig U19 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

D. Lelle

49'

M. Ibrahimi

54'

E. Uhlmann

69'

C. Krüger← P. Gysbers

69'

O. Altin← G. Michalek

69'

S. Wien← B. Kamole

73'

M. Voigt← R. Friedrich

75'

L. Bölke← R. Meier

75'

P. Weber← D. Lelle

80'

D. Ihendu← S. Raebiger

80'

D. Krasucki← Hugo Novoa

90'

S. Ba

Magdeburg

RB

Eutinger

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Sander

69'▲C. Krüger←▼P. Gysbers

69'▲O. Altin←▼G. Michalek

69'▲S. Wien←▼B. Kamole

75'▲L. Bölke←▼R. Meier

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

KrügerAltinWienBölkeOikonomidisLeinweberSchade

Manager: D. Meyer

73'▲M. Voigt←▼R. Friedrich

75'▲P. Weber←▼D. Lelle

80'▲D. Ihendu←▼S. Raebiger

80'▲D. Krasucki←▼Hugo Novoa

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

VoigtWeberIhenduKrasuckiNickischWinterSiepler

DFB Junioren Pokal: Magdeburg U19 0–4 RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Magdeburg U19 4-0 in DFB Junioren Pokal on August 27, 2021.

Goals: D. Lelle (32'), M. Ibrahimi (49'), E. Uhlmann (54'), S. Ba (90').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

DFB Junioren Pokal: Magdeburg U19 0–4 RB Leipzig U19