Magdeburg U19 1–2 RB Leipzig U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

RB Leipzig U19

L. Mergner 78'

J. Sachse 71'

P. Kühnhardt 69' (pen)

3/25/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1937%

×Draw21%

RB Leipzig U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.08

Magdeburg U19

1.92

RB Leipzig U19

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

2.37

creates per match

2.16

2.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

RB Leipzig U19

2.16

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

RB Leipzig U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

57%

Magdeburg U19 or RB Leipzig U19

79%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

63%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

19%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

57%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

30%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

87%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

61%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

43%

RB Leipzig U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Bulland← E. Lenz

46'

J. Puphal← L. Hennig

46'

J. Sachse← Y. Eduardo

46'

N. Jatta← L. Schößler

46'

P. Kühnhardt← C. Onuoha

55'

L. Behlendorf← M. Baars

55'

L. Mergner← J. Mehnert

69'

L. Grabenberg← C. Krüger

69'

P. KühnhardtPenalty

71'

J. Sachse

76'

E. Lorenz← B. Hamidovic

76'

P. Heinrich← E. Schültke

78'

L. Mergner

Magdeburg

RB

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Wölfel

55'▲L. Behlendorf←▼M. Baars

55'▲L. Mergner←▼J. Mehnert

69'▲L. Grabenberg←▼C. Krüger

76'▲E. Lorenz←▼B. Hamidovic

76'▲P. Heinrich←▼E. Schültke

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

BehlendorfMergnerGrabenbergLorenzHeinrichSanatciGüldner

Manager: R. Peter

46'▲A. Bulland←▼E. Lenz

46'▲J. Puphal←▼L. Hennig

46'▲J. Sachse←▼Y. Eduardo

46'▲N. Jatta←▼L. Schößler

46'▲P. Kühnhardt←▼C. Onuoha

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

BullandPuphalSachseJattaKühnhardtAé

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Magdeburg U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 25, 2023.

Goals: P. Kühnhardt (69' pen), J. Sachse (71'), L. Mergner (78').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs RB Leipzig U19