Rampla Juniors 0–1 Progreso: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Progreso

6/24/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rampla Juniors31%

×Draw26%

Progreso43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.42

Rampla Juniors

1.15

Progreso

1.42

Progreso creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 17 away

1.18

creates per match

1.88

0.96

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.18

Progreso

1.88

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

0.96

Progreso

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

57%

Rampla Juniors or Progreso

74%

Draw or Progreso

69%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

12%

Progreso wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

68%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

32%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

11%

Progreso 1+ goals

76%

Progreso 2+ goals

41%

Progreso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

41%

Progreso (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.18 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Progreso attack 1.88 + Rampla Juniors defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

31%

level

26%

Progreso scores more

43%

Progreso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff