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Progreso vs Rampla Juniors — Segunda División 2026

Progreso
Progreso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
11/12/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 21Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Progreso55%
×Draw24%
Rampla Juniors21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progreso
1.73
Rampla Juniors
0.98

Progreso creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 58 away

creates per match

Progreso
2.12
Rampla Juniors
0.83

allows per match

Progreso
1.12
Rampla Juniors
1.34

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Progreso or draw
79%
Progreso or Rampla Juniors
76%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
45%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+
30%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals
82%
Progreso 2+ goals
52%
Progreso 3+ goals
25%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
62%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
26%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)
72%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 2.12 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rampla Juniors attack 0.83 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Progreso scores more
55%
level
24%
Rampla Juniors scores more
21%

Progreso at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progreso vs Rampla Juniors

Progreso and Rampla Juniors drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.