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Progreso vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Progreso
Progreso
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
3/27/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 2Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Progreso49%
×Draw24%
Rampla Juniors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progreso
1.69
Rampla Juniors
1.21

Progreso creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

creates per match

Progreso
1.31
Rampla Juniors
0.93

allows per match

Progreso
1.48
Rampla Juniors
2.07

finishing

Progreso+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progreso ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Progreso or draw
73%
Progreso or Rampla Juniors
76%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
51%

Winning margin

Progreso wins by 2+
26%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Progreso 1+ goals
82%
Progreso 2+ goals
50%
Progreso 3+ goals
24%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
70%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
34%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Progreso (draw refunded)
64%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progreso at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progreso attack 1.31 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rampla Juniors attack 0.93 + Progreso defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Progreso scores more
49%
level
24%
Rampla Juniors scores more
27%

Progreso at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progreso vs Rampla Juniors

Progreso beat Rampla Juniors 4-2 in Primera División - Apertura on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Abraham Paladino in Montevideo.