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Rampla Juniors vs Progreso — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Progreso
Progreso
2/16/2019Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rampla Juniors39%
×Draw26%
Progreso35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.37
Progreso
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.08
Progreso
1.21

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
1.32
Progreso
1.66

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Progreso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
65%
Rampla Juniors or Progreso
74%
Draw or Progreso
61%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
18%
Progreso wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
75%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
40%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
16%
Progreso 1+ goals
72%
Progreso 2+ goals
36%
Progreso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
53%
Progreso (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.08 + Progreso defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.37

Progreso attack 1.21 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
39%
level
26%
Progreso scores more
35%

Rampla Juniors at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Progreso

Progreso beat Rampla Juniors 4-3 in Primera División - Apertura on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo).