Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

I. Lopez 42'

2/21/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 22zondacrypto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Raków Częstochowa50%

×Draw23%

Nieciecza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.21

Raków Częstochowa

1.77

Nieciecza

1.21

Raków Częstochowa creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.58

creates per match

1.39

1.04

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.58

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.04

Nieciecza

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

74%

Raków Częstochowa or Nieciecza

77%

Draw or Nieciecza

50%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

28%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

26%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

70%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

34%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

66%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.58 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

50%

level

23%

Nieciecza scores more

26%

Raków Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

O. Zych

Raków Częstochowa · G

8.2

Match Events

34'

Maciej Wolski

42'

I. Lopez

46'

R. Kurzawa← I. Strzalek

46'

K. Zapolnik← I. Durdov

60'

Rafał Kurzawa

61'

Adriano← J. C. Silva

61'

L. Diaby-Fadiga← P. Makuch

69'

L. Rocha← I. Lopez

69'

S. Guerrero← A. Putivtsev

77'

J. Jimenez← M. Fassbender

79'

Krzysztof Kubica

81'

T. Pienko← J. Brunes

81'

M. Ilenic← M. Ameyaw

82'

D. Hilbrycht← R. Boboc

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RakówNieciecza

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots20

1.70Expected Goals (xG)0.93

4Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots20

4On Target5

3Off Target8

2Blocked7

8Inside Box10

1Outside Box10

Passing

55%Possession45%

410Total Passes338

318Accurate Passes237

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza

Raków Częstochowa beat Nieciecza 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 21, 2026.

Goals: I. Lopez (42').

Raków Częstochowa controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at zondacrypto Arena in Czestochowa.

Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza