Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

T. Petrášek 78'

Ivi López 63'

N. Tekijaški 6' (OG)

M. Mešanović 90+5'

N. Tekijaški 58'

10/23/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 12Stadion Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Raków Częstochowa50%

×Draw23%

Nieciecza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.22

Raków Częstochowa

1.77

Nieciecza

1.22

Raków Częstochowa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.58

creates per match

1.40

1.04

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.58

Nieciecza

1.40

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.04

Nieciecza

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Nieciecza-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

74%

Raków Częstochowa or Nieciecza

77%

Draw or Nieciecza

50%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

83%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

53%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

26%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

70%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

34%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

66%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.58 + Nieciecza defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nieciecza attack 1.40 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

50%

level

23%

Nieciecza scores more

26%

Raków Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Tudor

Raków Częstochowa · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

N. TekijaškiOwn goal

26'

Marcin Wasielewski

45+5'

Tomáš Petrášek

46'

M. Rundić← Z. Arsenić

46'

A. Hloušek← M. Grabowski

58'

N. Tekijaški

59'

E. Terpiłowski← M. Wasielewski

63'

Ivi López↳ F. Tudor

65'

Nemanja Tekijaški

69'

D. Szelągowski← B. Lederman

73'

A. Radwański← S. Bonecki

75'

Alexandre Guedes← V. Gutkovskis

78'

T. Petrášek↳ F. Tudor

81'

R. Gergel← M. Zeman

81'

M. Mešanović← K. Śpiewak

84'

M. Wdowiak← P. Kun

84'

Sturgeon← Ivi López

90'

Michal Bezpalec

90+5'

M. Mešanović↳ M. Grzybek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RakówNieciecza

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots13

4Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots13

9On Target3

5Off Target6

1Blocked4

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

324Total Passes469

231Accurate Passes371

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

11Offsides0

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza

Raków Częstochowa beat Nieciecza 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on October 23, 2021.

Goals: N. Tekijaški (6' o.g., 58'), Ivi López (63'), T. Petrášek (78'), M. Mešanović (90+5').

Nieciecza controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion Raków in Częstochowa.

Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Nieciecza