Nieciecza 2–3 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Raków Częstochowa

I. Strzalek 81'

J. Jimenez 3'

L. Rocha 74'

M. Bulat 67'

M. Ameyaw 14'

8/17/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 5Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Nieciecza30%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.67

Nieciecza

1.31

Raków Częstochowa

1.67

Raków Częstochowa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

1.31

creates per match

1.66

1.68

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.31

Raków Częstochowa

1.66

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.68

Raków Częstochowa

1.30

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Nieciecza+0.19scores more

Raków Częstochowa-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

54%

Nieciecza or Raków Częstochowa

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

70%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

13%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

73%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

38%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

14%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

50%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

40%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.68 · 10 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.31 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.66 + Nieciecza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nieciecza scores more

30%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

46%

Raków Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Bulat

Raków Częstochowa · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

J. Jimenez↳ S. Guerrero

8'

Marko Bulat

14'

M. Ameyaw↳ T. Pienko

46'

L. Masoero← A. Kasperkiewicz

46'

J. Silva← F. Tudor

46'

L. Diaby-Fadiga← M. Ameyaw

46'

P. Barath← O. Repka

56'

R. Kurzawa← S. Guerrero

66'

R. Boboc← D. Hilbrycht

66'

I. Strzalek← M. Fassbender

66'

67'

72'

74'

80'

80'

81'

84'

86'

W. Jakubik← M. Ambrosiewicz

89'

Gabriel Isik

89'

Ivi López

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiecieczaRaków

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots17

6Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots17

3On Target10

1Off Target6

5Blocked1

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

352Total Passes416

271Accurate Passes357

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0