Nieciecza 0–3 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Nieciecza

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Raków Częstochowa

S. Musiolik 90+1'

V. Gutkovskis 62'

Ivi López 36'

4/16/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 29Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Nieciecza30%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.67

Nieciecza

1.31

Raków Częstochowa

1.67

Raków Częstochowa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 29 away

1.31

creates per match

1.66

1.68

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.31

Raków Częstochowa

1.66

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.68

Raków Częstochowa

1.30

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Nieciecza+0.19scores more

Raków Częstochowa-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

54%

Nieciecza or Raków Częstochowa

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

70%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

13%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

73%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

38%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

14%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

50%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

40%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.68 · 10 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.31 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.66 + Nieciecza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nieciecza scores more

30%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

46%

Raków Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Ivi López

Raków Częstochowa · F

8.3

Match Events

27'

Piotr Wlazło

33'

Patryk Kun

36'

Ivi López

46'

T. Poznar← D. Domgjonas

58'

M. Cebula← Fábio Sturgeon

62'

V. Gutkovskis

64'

A. Polyarus← K. Śpiewak

64'

M. Grabowski← M. Hybš

78'

R. Varga← M. Mešanović

78'

S. Czyż← V. Gvilia

78'

J. Arak← V. Gutkovskis

85'

S. Štefánik← A. Polyarus

89'

S. Musiolik← Ivi López

90'

I. Sapała← B. Lederman

90+1'

S. Musiolik↳ I. Sapała

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiecieczaRaków

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots13

6Corners8

9Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target6

6Off Target5

4Blocked2

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

470Total Passes267

379Accurate Passes176

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1