Raj Pracha 1–2 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Raj Pracha

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lampang FC

11/16/2022

League Cup · 1st RoundNonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Raj Pracha27%

×Draw22%

Lampang FC52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raj PrachaExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.00

Raj Pracha

1.38

Lampang FC

2.00

Lampang FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Raj Pracha

2.00

Lampang FC

2.00

allows per match

Raj Pracha

2.00

Lampang FC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw

48%

Raj Pracha or Lampang FC

78%

Draw or Lampang FC

73%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

11%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

75%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

40%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

16%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

86%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

59%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

34%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 2.00 + Lampang FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lampang FC attack 2.00 + Raj Pracha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Raj Pracha scores more

27%

level

22%

Lampang FC scores more

52%

Lampang FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff