Lampang FC 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Raj Pracha

10/9/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 7Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lampang FC51%

×Draw27%

Raj Pracha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.84

Lampang FC

1.44

Raj Pracha

0.84

Lampang FC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

1.48

creates per match

0.68

1.01

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

78%

Lampang FC or Raj Pracha

73%

Draw or Raj Pracha

49%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

26%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

76%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

42%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

18%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

57%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

21%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

70%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lampang FC scores more

51%

level

27%

Raj Pracha scores more

22%

Lampang FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff