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Lampang FC vs Raj Pracha — FA Cup 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
11/1/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundLampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lampang FC63%
×Draw17%
Raj Pracha20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
2.88
Raj Pracha
1.61

Lampang FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
4.00
Raj Pracha
1.63

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.60
Raj Pracha
1.75

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
80%
Lampang FC or Raj Pracha
83%
Draw or Raj Pracha
37%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
43%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
94%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
78%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
54%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
80%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
48%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
76%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + Raj Pracha defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Raj Pracha attack 1.63 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lampang FC scores more
63%
level
17%
Raj Pracha scores more
20%

Lampang FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Lampang FC 1–1 Raj Pracha

Lampang FC and Raj Pracha drew 1-1 in FA Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.