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Raj Pracha vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
2/13/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha40%
×Draw26%
Lampang FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.36
Lampang FC
1.24

Raj Pracha creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
66%
Raj Pracha or Lampang FC
74%
Draw or Lampang FC
60%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
18%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
74%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
39%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
16%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
71%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
35%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
54%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
40%
level
26%
Lampang FC scores more
34%

Raj Pracha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raj Pracha vs Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Raj Pracha 2-0 in Thai League 2 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.