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Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT — League #182 2026

Raith Rovers
Raith Roversadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
4/5/2026League #182League #182 · FinalFirhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Raith Rovers55%
×Draw18%
Inverness CT27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.83
Inverness CT
2.00

Raith Rovers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
3.33
Inverness CT
3.00

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.00
Inverness CT
2.33

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
73%
Raith Rovers or Inverness CT
82%
Draw or Inverness CT
45%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
36%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
94%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
77%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
53%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
86%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
59%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
67%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 3.33 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Inverness CT attack 3.00 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
55%
level
18%
Inverness CT scores more
27%

Raith Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT

Raith Rovers beat Inverness CT 4-1 in League #182 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Firhill Stadium in Glasgow.