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Inverness CT vs Raith Rovers — League #180 2026

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
4/19/2024League #180League #180 · Round 34Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inverness CT30%
×Draw27%
Raith Rovers43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.06
Raith Rovers
1.33

Raith Rovers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00

allows per match

Inverness CT
1.67
Raith Rovers
1.11

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
57%
Inverness CT or Raith Rovers
73%
Draw or Raith Rovers
70%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
11%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
65%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
29%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
9%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
74%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
38%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
41%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.00 + Raith Rovers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + Inverness CT defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inverness CT scores more
30%
level
27%
Raith Rovers scores more
43%

Raith Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #180: Inverness CT 0–1 Raith Rovers

Raith Rovers beat Inverness CT 1-0 in League #180 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.