Raith Rovers 1–0 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inverness CT

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Raith Rovers36%

×Draw23%

Inverness CT41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.72

Raith Rovers

1.58

Inverness CT

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.17

creates per match

2.43

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.17

Inverness CT

2.43

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.00

Inverness CT

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

59%

Raith Rovers or Inverness CT

77%

Draw or Inverness CT

64%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

79%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

47%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

21%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

82%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

51%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

46%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.17 + Inverness CT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Inverness CT attack 2.43 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

36%

level

23%

Inverness CT scores more

41%

Inverness CT at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff