Raith Rovers 5–1 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Inverness CT

R. Savage 90' (OG)

D. Easton 64', 7', 5'

J. Hamilton 36'

D. Wotherspoon 58'

7/26/2025

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Raith Rovers71%

×Draw15%

Inverness CT13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.19

Raith Rovers

2.88

Inverness CT

1.19

Raith Rovers creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

3.33

creates per match

1.22

1.17

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Raith Rovers

3.33

Inverness CT

1.22

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.17

Inverness CT

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

87%

Raith Rovers or Inverness CT

85%

Draw or Inverness CT

29%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

51%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

94%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

78%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

54%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

70%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

33%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

84%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 3.33 + Inverness CT defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.88

Inverness CT attack 1.22 + Raith Rovers defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

71%

level

15%

Inverness CT scores more

13%

Raith Rovers at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Easton↳ J. Hamilton

7'

36'

58'

59'

59'

L. Vaughan← J. Hamilton

59'

J. Mullin← J. Rowe

64'

D. Easton

65'

R. Matthews← S. Byrne

67'

B. McKay← D. Wotherspoon

67'

R. Thompson← L. Sole

67'

A. Kerr← L. Longstaff

68'

Daniel Devine

69'

K. Montagu← D. Easton

80'

B. Gardiner← A. Stewart

80'

S. Thompson← J. Chalmers

90'

R. SavageOwn goal

Statistics

RaithInverness

Discipline

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0