Raith Rovers 3–3 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Inverness CT

I. Duku 90', 11'

D. Devine 59' (OG)

R. MacGregor 69'

J. Keatings 67' (pen)

S. Sutherland 24'

11/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Raith Rovers65%

×Draw18%

Inverness CT17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.19

Raith Rovers

2.46

Inverness CT

1.19

Raith Rovers creates 107% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

2.58

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.58

Inverness CT

1.13

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.25

Inverness CT

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

83%

Raith Rovers or Inverness CT

82%

Draw or Inverness CT

35%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

43%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

91%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

70%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

44%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

70%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

33%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

79%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

65%

level

18%

Inverness CT scores more

17%

Raith Rovers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

I. Duku

15'

A. Doran

24'

S. Sutherland↳ K. Kennedy

33'

R. MacGregor← J. Vincent

36'

D. Devine

45+1'

R. Deas← B. McKay

59'

D. DevineOwn goal

67'

J. KeatingsPenalty

69'

79'

81'

85'

89'

90'

I. Duku↳ F. Mendy

Raith

Inverness

1

Ridgers

6

🥅

Devine

22

▼

McKay

2

Duffy

16

Harper

14

▼

Vincent

10

▼

Doran

18

Allardice

19

A

Kennedy

11

⚽

Sutherlan

7

⚽

Keatings

17

Thomson

6

Benedictu

5

A

2

14

12

8

7

22

13

9

⚽2

Duku

Manager: J. McGlynn

Raith Rovers substitutes

25Arnott1MacDonald27Coulson19Mahady

Manager: J. Robertson

33'▲R. MacGregor←▼J. Vincent

45+1'▲R. Deas←▼B. McKay

85'▲N. Todorov←▼A. Doran

Inverness CT substitutes

12MacGregor24Deas77Todorov25Nicolson28Hyde21Mackay26Fyffe

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT

Raith Rovers and Inverness CT drew 3-3 in League Cup on November 10, 2020.

Goals: I. Duku (11', 90'), S. Sutherland (24'), D. Devine (59' o.g.), J. Keatings (67' pen), R. MacGregor (69').

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.

Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT