Radomiak Radom 3–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

A. Tapsoba 48', 45', 26'

T. Bobcek 66' (pen)

5/4/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 31Stadion im. Braci Czachorów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Radomiak Radom43%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.46

Radomiak Radom

1.68

Lechia Gdansk

1.46

Radomiak Radom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

1.62

1.29

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.60

Lechia Gdansk

1.62

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

1.29

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.17scores more

Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

66%

Radomiak Radom or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

57%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

22%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

81%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

50%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

24%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

43%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

56%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 26 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.60 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

43%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

34%

Radomiak Radom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Tapsoba

Radomiak Radom · M

10.0

Match Events

26'

30'

36'

39'

44'

T. Neugebauer← B. Viunnyk

45'

A. Tapsoba

48'

A. Tapsoba↳ E. Balde

56'

M. Cichocki← E. Balde

56'

I. Camara← R. Wolski

62'

Zié Ouattara

65'

Tomasz NeugebauerPenalty confirmed

66'

T. BobcekPenalty

70'

R. Baro← C. Donis

70'

S. Soumah← A. Tapsoba

83'

M. Kalahur← M. Vojtko

83'

B. Kludka← T. Wojtowicz

85'

Miłosz Kałahur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadomiakLechia

Overview

33%Possession67%

13Total Shots27

1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.44

4Corners7

10Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots27

5On Target7

4Off Target13

4Blocked7

8Inside Box17

5Outside Box10

Passing

33%Possession67%

250Total Passes475

172Accurate Passes403

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

-1.71Goals Prevented-1.71

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3