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Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
L. Zwoliński 82' (pen)
Leonardo Rocha 52' (pen), 21'
D. Abramowicz 41'
2/25/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 22Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk50%
×Draw23%
Radomiak Radom28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Radomiak Radom
1.31

Lechia Gdansk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.59
Radomiak Radom
1.08

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.53
Radomiak Radom
2.06

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par
Radomiak Radom-0.04on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Radomiak Radom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
72%
Lechia Gdansk or Radomiak Radom
77%
Draw or Radomiak Radom
50%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
27%
Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
54%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
28%
Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
73%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
38%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
64%
Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
50%
level
23%
Radomiak Radom scores more
28%

Lechia Gdansk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Leonardo RochaRadomiak RadomRadomiak Radom · F
8.5

Match Events

21'
Leonardo Rocha↳ Lisandro Semedo
41'
D. Abramowicz↳ M. Cestor
46'
M. Terrazzino← K. Tobers
46'
D. Piła← K. Sezonienko
46'
J. Kałuziński← İ. Durmuş
47'
Jakub Nowakowski
48'
Dawid AbramowiczPenalty confirmed
50'
Kevin Friesenbichler
52'
Leonardo RochaPenalty
59'
B. Diabaté← K. Friesenbichler
62'
J. Sarmiento← Leonardo Rocha
71'
Michał Nalepa
73'
F. Castañeda← Luís Machado
80'
Frank Castañeda
82'
L. ZwolińskiPenalty
84'
Flávio Paixão← M. Gajos
90'
T. Cele← C. Donis
90'
D. Pik← Lisandro Semedo

Possession

60%Lechia

Shots

9Lechia

Pass accuracy

52%Lechia

Statistics

LechiaRadomiak
Overview
60%Possession40%
9Total Shots18
6Corners6
13Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots18
3On Target8
5Off Target6
1Blocked4
6Inside Box16
3Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
512Total Passes347
414Accurate Passes262
81%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom

Radomiak Radom beat Lechia Gdansk 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 25, 2023.

Goals: Leonardo Rocha (21', 52' pen), D. Abramowicz (41'), L. Zwoliński (82' pen).

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.