Lechia Gdansk 1–2 Radomiak Radom: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Radomiak Radom

B. Viunnyk 90'

A. Tapsoba 84'

Capita 35'

11/3/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lechia Gdansk50%

×Draw23%

Radomiak Radom28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchRadomiak Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.31

Lechia Gdansk

1.83

Radomiak Radom

1.31

Lechia Gdansk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

1.59

creates per match

1.08

1.53

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.59

Radomiak Radom

1.08

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

Radomiak Radom

2.06

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk-0.02on par

Radomiak Radom-0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Radomiak Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

72%

Lechia Gdansk or Radomiak Radom

77%

Draw or Radomiak Radom

50%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

27%

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

84%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

54%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

28%

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

73%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

38%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

64%

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 21 matches

Radomiak Radom away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.59 + Radomiak Radom defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

50%

level

23%

Radomiak Radom scores more

28%

Lechia Gdansk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Capita

Radomiak Radom · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Tomáš Bobček

35'

Capita↳ V. Lopes

41'

Vasco Lopes

58'

C. Donis← R. Wolski

58'

E. Balde← V. Lopes

66'

B. Viunnyk← A. Cirkovic

66'

M. Awad← R. Kapic

69'

M. Kaput← I. Camara

69'

Depu← Maurides

72'

Capita

76'

Christos Donis

80'

A. Tapsoba← Capita

81'

D. Kurminowski← T. Neugebauer

84'

A. Tapsoba↳ R. Alves

85'

Abdoul TapsobaGoal confirmed

90+7'

Matúš Vojtko

90+7'

Zié Ouattara

90'

B. Viunnyk↳ D. Kurminowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechiaRadomiak

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots11

1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.36

8Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

338Total Passes404

257Accurate Passes321

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1