Radomiak Radom 2–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Radomiak Radom

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

Capita 72'

M. Burch 36'

T. Bobček 20'

3/14/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Radomiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Radomiak Radom44%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radomiak RadomExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.44

Radomiak Radom

1.69

Lechia Gdansk

1.44

Radomiak Radom creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

1.63

creates per match

1.62

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Radomiak Radom

1.63

Lechia Gdansk

1.62

allows per match

Radomiak Radom

1.25

Lechia Gdansk

1.75

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.09on par

Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw

67%

Radomiak Radom or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

56%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+

23%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals

82%

Radomiak Radom 2+ goals

50%

Radomiak Radom 3+ goals

24%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

42%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)

57%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 29 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.63 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more

44%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

33%

Radomiak Radom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Burch

Radomiak Radom · D

8.5

Match Events

20'

36'

38'

43'

45+1'

46'

A. Tsarenko← B. Viunnyk

48'

Michał Kaput

54'

Bujar Pllana

60'

Bruno Jordão

67'

Chico Ramos← Bruno Jordão

67'

Capita← A. Tapsoba

72'

Capita↳ M. Burch

74'

Saad Agouzoul

81'

R. Alves← M. Kaput

81'

C. Donis← R. Wolski

83'

L. D'Arrigo← T. Neugebauer

85'

M. Głogowski← M. Khlan

86'

Perotti← R. Dadashov

90+2'

Christos Donis

90+1'

Rifet Kapić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadomiakLechia

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots5

0.95Expected Goals (xG)0.98

5Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots5

5On Target1

3Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box0

Passing

46%Possession54%

291Total Passes353

208Accurate Passes271

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

6Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1