Racing Club 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Racing Club

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

B. Zuculini 45'

4/18/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Racing Club46%

×Draw29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.86

Racing Club

1.26

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.86

Racing Club creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

0.74

0.99

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Racing Club

1.14

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.74

allows per match

Racing Club

0.99

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.38

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Racing Club+0.48scores more

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

75%

Racing Club or Central Cordoba de Santiago

71%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

54%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

72%

Racing Club 2+ goals

36%

Racing Club 3+ goals

13%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

58%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

64%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.99 · 21 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 1.14 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Racing Club defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Club scores more

46%

level

29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

25%

Racing Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Aguerre

Central Cordoba de Santiago · G

8.0

Match Events

45'

B. Zuculini

46'

M. Perello← G. Trindade

46'

L. Angulo← N. Funez

51'

M. Barrios← B. Zuculini

61'

Leonardo HerediaPenalty confirmed

66'

M. Zaracho← A. E. Almendra

66'

A. Fernandez← L. Vietto

69'

G. Veron← S. Cristoforo

82'

Adrián Martínez

82'

Lucas Abascia

84'

S. Solari← M. Salas

84'

A. Balboa← Adrian Martinez

84'

D. Glaby← J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

86'

Fernando Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingCentral

Overview

56%Possession44%

23Total Shots11

9Corners3

13Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots11

7On Target3

12Off Target4

4Blocked4

18Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

391Total Passes316

276Accurate Passes225

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Racing Club vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Racing Club beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 18, 2025.

Goals: B. Zuculini (45').

Racing Club controlled possession (56%) and registered 23 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón in Avellaneda.

Racing Club vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Racing Club vs Central Cordoba de Santiago