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QPR vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
4/11/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

QPR42%
×Draw27%
Bristol City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.08

QPR creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Bristol City
1.05

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Bristol City
1.35

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
66%
Bristol City 2+ goals
29%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
58%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 56 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.05 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
42%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
30%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. WalshQPRQPR · G
8.9

Match Events

27'
Jonathan Varane
55'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
66'
Noah Eile
68'
R. Burrell← R. Kolli
69'
D. Bennie← R. Kone
75'
Daniel Bennie
75'
K. Poku← K. Morgan
76'
R. McCrorie← M. Sykes
76'
D. Burgzorg← E. Riis
83'
G. Earthy← M. Bird
85'
Rhys Norrington-Davies
88'
T. Horvat← S. Twine
89'
Delano Burgzorg

Possession

45%QPR

Shots

10QPR

Pass accuracy

50%QPR

Statistics

QPRBristol
Overview
45%Possession55%
10Total Shots13
0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.83
3Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots13
2On Target6
3Off Target0
5Blocked7
8Inside Box6
2Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
400Total Passes517
349Accurate Passes450
87%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
0.31Goals Prevented0.31
Discipline
10Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Championship: QPR 0–0 Bristol City

QPR and Bristol City drew 0-0 in Championship on April 11, 2026.

Bristol City controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.