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Bristol City vs QPR — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
S. Twine 60'
P. Smyth 65'
12/14/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bristol City38%
×Draw28%
QPR34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.20
QPR
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.06
QPR
0.85

allows per match

Bristol City
1.37
QPR
1.34

finishing

Bristol City-0.06on par
QPR+0.40scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
66%
Bristol City or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
62%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
16%
QPR wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%
QPR 1+ goals
67%
QPR 2+ goals
30%
QPR 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
53%
QPR (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.37 · 22 matches

QPR away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.34 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.06 + QPR defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

QPR attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more
38%
level
28%
QPR scores more
34%

Bristol City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. BirdBristol CityBristol City · M
8.0

Match Events

26'
Jason Knight
45+2'
Jimmy Dunne
46'
A. Lloyd← R. Kolli
58'
Sam Field
59'
S. Twine← Y. Hirakawa
60'
S. Twine
65'
P. Smyth↳ J. Varane
74'
I. Chair← K. Saito
74'
N. Madsen← L. Andersen
77'
S. Bell← G. Earthy
77'
F. Mayulu← N. Wells
80'
K. Paal← H. Ashby
88'
D. Bennie← P. Smyth

Possession

70%Bristol

Shots

17Bristol

Pass accuracy

58%Bristol

Statistics

BristolQPR
Overview
70%Possession30%
17Total Shots5
1.99Expected Goals (xG)0.16
10Corners3
5Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots5
5On Target2
7Off Target2
5Blocked1
12Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
584Total Passes255
492Accurate Passes158
84%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
-0.50Goals Prevented-0.50
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Bristol City vs QPR

Bristol City and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on December 14, 2024.

Goals: S. Twine (60'), P. Smyth (65').

Bristol City controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.