Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bristol City vs QPR — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
QPR
QPR
I. Chair 41'
2/17/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol City37%
×Draw29%
QPR34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.16
QPR
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.04
QPR
0.85

allows per match

Bristol City
1.35
QPR
1.28

finishing

Bristol City-0.08on par
QPR+0.38scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
66%
Bristol City or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
63%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
15%
QPR wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
32%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%
QPR 1+ goals
67%
QPR 2+ goals
30%
QPR 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
52%
QPR (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

QPR away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.04 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

QPR attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more
37%
level
29%
QPR scores more
34%

Bristol City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · M
8.0

Match Events

26'
H. Cornick← S. Bell
37'
Isaac Hayden
41'
I. Chair↳ L. Andersen
58'
T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Williams
58'
T. Conway← A. Mehmeti
58'
A. Mebude← J. Knight
69'
J. Hodge← L. Andersen
75'
M. Sykes← R. McCrorie
78'
J. Colback← I. Hayden
78'
M. Frey← L. Dykes
90+1'
P. Smyth← C. Willock

Possession

58%Bristol

Shots

11Bristol

Pass accuracy

51%Bristol

Statistics

BristolQPR
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots11
0.60Expected Goals (xG)0.90
4Corners2
7Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots11
2On Target7
7Off Target1
2Blocked3
4Inside Box9
7Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
619Total Passes451
525Accurate Passes364
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Bristol City vs QPR

QPR beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on February 17, 2024.

Goals: I. Chair (41').

Bristol City controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.