Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

QPR vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
4/12/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

QPR46%
×Draw28%
Bristol City27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.35
Bristol City
0.96

QPR creates 41% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

QPR
1.30
Bristol City
0.99

allows per match

QPR
0.94
Bristol City
1.41

finishing

QPR+0.28scores more
Bristol City-0.09on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw
73%
QPR or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
54%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
22%
Bristol City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
39%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
62%
Bristol City 2+ goals
25%
Bristol City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
63%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

Bristol City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.41 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.30 + Bristol City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol City attack 0.99 + QPR defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

QPR scores more
46%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
27%

QPR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: QPR 1–1 Bristol City

QPR and Bristol City drew 1-1 in Championship on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.