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QPR vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
S. Bell 55'
M. Sykes 28'
5/8/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

QPR42%
×Draw27%
Bristol City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.08

QPR creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Bristol City
1.04

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Bristol City
1.33

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
70%
QPR or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
66%
Bristol City 2+ goals
29%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
58%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.04 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
42%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
30%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
Z. VynerBristol CityBristol City · D
7.7

Match Events

15'
Zak Vyner
28'
M. Sykes↳ C. Pring
55'
S. Bell↳ J. Williams
60'
J. Lowe← A. Adomah
61'
C. Willock← C. Martin
61'
J. Clarke-Salter← J. Dunne
63'
A. Mehmeti← S. Bell
64'
N. Wells← T. Conway
64'
T. Kalas← K. Naismith
64'
A. Weimann← J. Williams
76'
A. Dozzell← L. Amos
82'
S. Johansen← S. Field
85'
A. King← M. James

Possession

38%QPR

Shots

16QPR

Pass accuracy

46%QPR

Statistics

QPRBristol
Overview
38%Possession62%
16Total Shots8
7Corners3
13Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots8
0On Target2
10Off Target4
6Blocked2
12Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
317Total Passes521
219Accurate Passes422
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Discipline
13Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Championship: QPR 0–2 Bristol City

Bristol City beat QPR 2-0 in Championship on May 8, 2023.

Goals: M. Sykes (28'), S. Bell (55').

Bristol City controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.