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QPR vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
S. McCallum 54'
N. Wells 90+3'
C. Martin 45'
9/18/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR42%
×Draw27%
Bristol City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.11

QPR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
69%
QPR or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
67%
Bristol City 2+ goals
30%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
57%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
42%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
31%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. BentleyBristol CityBristol City · G
9.0

Match Events

45'
C. Martin↳ A. Weimann
46'
J. Dasilva← N. Baker
51'
Andre Gray
53'
Tyreeq Bakinson
54'
S. McCallum
62'
N. Wells← C. Martin
64'
C. Austin← A. Gray
65'
A. Adomah← M. Odubajo
71'
A. Semenyo← C. Pring
79'
Yoann Barbet
80'
D. Ball← L. Dykes
85'
Dominic Ball
89'
Stefan Johansen
90+3'
N. Wells↳ A. Weimann

Possession

63%QPR

Shots

26QPR

Pass accuracy

54%QPR

Statistics

QPRBristol
Overview
63%Possession37%
26Total Shots9
9Corners4
13Fouls8
Shots
26Total Shots9
11On Target3
10Off Target4
5Blocked2
19Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
524Total Passes323
441Accurate Passes232
84%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves10
Discipline
13Fouls8
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Championship: QPR 1–2 Bristol City

Bristol City beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on September 18, 2021.

Goals: C. Martin (45'), S. McCallum (54'), N. Wells (90+3').

QPR controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.