QPR 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bristol City

R. Dickie 12'

Á. Nagy 50'

N. Wells 40'

12/1/2020

Championship · Round 15Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR42%

×Draw27%

Bristol City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

QPR

1.33

Bristol City

1.11

QPR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

1.31

creates per match

1.10

1.12

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

QPR

1.31

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

QPR

1.12

Bristol City

1.34

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

QPR+0.09on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw

69%

QPR or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

19%

Bristol City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

74%

QPR 2+ goals

38%

QPR 3+ goals

15%

Bristol City 1+ goals

67%

Bristol City 2+ goals

30%

Bristol City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more

42%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

31%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Wells

Bristol City · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

R. Dickie↳ C. Willock

27'

40'

46'

50'

57'

68'

68'

69'

74'

N. Hamalainen← L. Wallace

83'

C. Kelman← C. Willock

83'

T. Bakinson← A. Semenyo

88'

T. Moore← N. Wells

90+3'

F. Diedhiou← C. Martin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRBristol

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots12

9Corners2

16Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots12

4On Target3

9Off Target5

6Blocked4

14Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

568Total Passes330

483Accurate Passes229

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5