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QPR vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City
Bristol City
A. Weimann 90', 50'
M. Taylor 41'
8/21/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

QPR42%
×Draw27%
Bristol City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.11

QPR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 62 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
69%
QPR or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
74%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
67%
Bristol City 2+ goals
30%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
57%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bristol City attack 1.10 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
42%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
31%

QPR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
A. WeimannBristol CityBristol City · M
8.6

Match Events

38'
Eros Pisano
41'
M. Taylor↳ J. Brownhill
48'
Josh Brownhill
50'
A. Weimann↳ N. Eliasson
56'
Josh Scowen
60'
J. Cousins← M. Luongo
60'
M. Smith← P. Wszołek
70'
Marlon Pack
76'
Idrissa Sylla← Àngel Rangel
76'
C. O'Dowda← M. Watkins
90+1'
Mohamed Eisa← M. Taylor
90'
A. Weimann↳ J. Brownhill

Possession

53%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRBristol
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots11
2Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots11
4On Target5
6Off Target5
4Blocked1
7Inside Box6
7Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
364Total Passes320
201Accurate Passes162
55%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Championship: QPR 0–3 Bristol City

Bristol City beat QPR 3-0 in Championship on August 21, 2018.

Goals: M. Taylor (41'), A. Weimann (50', 90').

QPR controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.