Qarabag 1–1 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Qarabag

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

F91 Dudelange

M. Gueye 90+1'

S. Bougrine 63'

12/12/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Qarabag47%

×Draw22%

F91 Dudelange31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QarabagExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.50

Qarabag

1.91

F91 Dudelange

1.50

Qarabag creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.21

creates per match

1.20

1.79

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Qarabag

1.21

F91 Dudelange

1.20

allows per match

Qarabag

1.79

F91 Dudelange

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw

69%

Qarabag or F91 Dudelange

78%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

53%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+

26%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals

85%

Qarabag 2+ goals

57%

Qarabag 3+ goals

30%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

78%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

44%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)

61%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 1.21 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

F91 Dudelange attack 1.20 + Qarabag defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Qarabag scores more

47%

level

22%

F91 Dudelange scores more

31%

Qarabag at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

M. Gueye

Qarabag · F

7.9

Match Events

30'

Gara Garayev

46'

Gara Garayev

46'

Gara Garayev

50'

R. Almeyda← İ. İbrahimli

53'

Charles Morren

63'

S. Bougrine

64'

Jaime Romero← Dani Quintana

66'

71'

75'

78'

84'

M. Pokar← S. Bougrine

86'

L. Mendy← A. Bettaieb

90+1'

M. Gueye↳ Jaime Romero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QarabagF91

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots5

5Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots5

2On Target3

8Off Target2

2Blocked0

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

526Total Passes379

427Accurate Passes293

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4