Qarabag 2–0 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Qarabag

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

F91 Dudelange

Richard 27', 11' (pen)

7/12/2016

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAzərsun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Qarabag51%

×Draw25%

F91 Dudelange24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QarabagExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.03

Qarabag

1.61

F91 Dudelange

1.03

Qarabag creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

2.05

creates per match

0.83

1.24

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Qarabag

2.05

F91 Dudelange

0.83

allows per match

Qarabag

1.24

F91 Dudelange

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qarabag+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qarabag ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Qarabag or draw

76%

Qarabag or F91 Dudelange

75%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

49%

Winning margin

Qarabag wins by 2+

27%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Qarabag 1+ goals

80%

Qarabag 2+ goals

48%

Qarabag 3+ goals

22%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

64%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

28%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Qarabag (draw refunded)

68%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qarabag at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qarabag attack 2.05 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

F91 Dudelange attack 0.83 + Qarabag defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qarabag scores more

51%

level

25%

F91 Dudelange scores more

24%

Qarabag at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Bryan Melisse

11'

RichardPenalty

24'

27'

33'

39'

48'

55'

56'

63'

69'

C. Moreira← K. Malget

74'

Ə. İsmayılov← M. Muarem

82'

Stélvio← K. Nakache

83'

R. Əmirquliyev← Dani Quintana

Possession

Shots

Statistics

QarabagF91

Overview

69%Possession31%

6Total Shots3

2Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots3

3On Target1

3Off Target2

Passing

69%Possession31%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2