F91 Dudelange 1–4 Qarabag: Result & Stats

F91 Dudelange

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Qarabag

A. Bernier 90'

Dani Quintana 69'

R. Almeyda 37' (pen)

Míchel 30'

A. Zoubir 11'

10/3/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Stade Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

F91 Dudelange28%

×Draw24%

Qarabag48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

F91 DudelangeExpected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.64

F91 Dudelange

1.20

Qarabag

1.64

Qarabag creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.27

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

F91 Dudelange

1.00

Qarabag

1.27

allows per match

F91 Dudelange

2.00

Qarabag

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw

52%

F91 Dudelange or Qarabag

76%

Draw or Qarabag

72%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

11%

Qarabag wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

70%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

34%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

12%

Qarabag 1+ goals

81%

Qarabag 2+ goals

49%

Qarabag 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

37%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 1.00 + Qarabag defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Qarabag attack 1.27 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more

28%

level

24%

Qarabag scores more

48%

Qarabag at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Dani Quintana

Qarabag · M

9.9

Match Events

11'

A. Zoubir

30'

Míchel↳ Dani Quintana

36'

Mickael Garos

37'

R. AlmeydaPenalty

56'

C. Lavie← R. Klapp

60'

S. Slavchev← Q. Qarayev

62'

Mickael Garos

62'

Mickael Garos

67'

C. Morren← L. Mendy

69'

Dani Quintana↳ A. Zoubir

72'

K. Cools← M. Pokar

72'

M. Gueye← Míchel

81'

A. Abdullayev← Dani Quintana

82'

Thibaut Lesquoy

90'

A. Bernier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

F91Qarabag

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots18

5Corners4

12Fouls4

Shots

11Total Shots18

3On Target13

4Off Target4

4Blocked1

6Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

437Total Passes680

373Accurate Passes613

85%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls4

3Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0