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F91 Dudelange vs Qarabag — UEFA Champions League 2026

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Qarabag
Qarabag
M. N'Diaye 71'
Reynaldo 90+4'
7/20/2016UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

F91 Dudelange32%
×Draw26%
Qarabag42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.23
Qarabag
1.45

Qarabag creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
1.00
Qarabag
1.29

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.60
Qarabag
1.47

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
58%
F91 Dudelange or Qarabag
74%
Draw or Qarabag
68%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
13%
Qarabag wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
71%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
35%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
13%
Qarabag 1+ goals
77%
Qarabag 2+ goals
42%
Qarabag 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
43%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 1.00 + Qarabag defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Qarabag attack 1.29 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
32%
level
26%
Qarabag scores more
42%

Qarabag at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Badavi Guseynov
23'
Rodrigue Dikaba
27'
Michel
65'
Rashad Sadygov
67'
M. Pokar← K. Nakache
70'
M. Mədətov← M. Muarem
71'
M. N'Diaye
80'
A. Laurienté← Daniel Alves da Mota
83'
Mario Pokar
83'
C. Diniyev← Q. Qarayev
87'
Joshgun Diniyev
87'
S. Ibrahimović← M. NDiaye
90+5'
Ə. İsmayılov← Dani Quintana
90+4'
Reynaldo

Possession

48%F91

Shots

2F91

Statistics

F91Qarabag
Overview
48%Possession52%
2Total Shots7
5Corners7
15Fouls12
Shots
2Total Shots7
2On Target4
0Off Target3
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Qarabag

F91 Dudelange and Qarabag drew 1-1 in UEFA Champions League on July 20, 2016.

Goals: M. N'Diaye (71'), Reynaldo (90+4').

Qarabag controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 2.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.