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Puebla vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
I. Moreno 55'
Madson 77'
4/4/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Puebla38%
×Draw24%
FC Juarez38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.59
FC Juarez
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.22
FC Juarez
1.30

allows per match

Puebla
1.87
FC Juarez
1.96

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
62%
Puebla or FC Juarez
76%
Draw or FC Juarez
62%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
19%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
80%
Puebla 2+ goals
47%
Puebla 3+ goals
21%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
79%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
47%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
50%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.22 + FC Juarez defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Juarez attack 1.30 + Puebla defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puebla scores more
38%
level
24%
FC Juarez scores more
38%

Puebla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
K. VelascoPueblaPuebla · F
8.3

Match Events

46'
R. Pizarro← R. Fulgencio
54'
L. Dupuy← Guilherme Castilho
55'
I. Moreno
65'
E. Lozano← A. Canelo
66'
Fernando Monarrez
68'
E. Ayon← O. Estupinan
68'
Madson← D. Garcia
68'
F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin← J. Aquino
77'
Madson↳ F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin
82'
Nicolás Díaz
82'
Nicolás Díaz
86'
O. Gonzalez← E. Gomez
86'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez← A. Organista
90+6'
Luca Martínez DupuyPenalty cancelled
90'
B. Garnica← I. Moreno

Possession

50%Puebla

Shots

11Puebla

Pass accuracy

50%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaFC
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots16
1.04Expected Goals (xG)1.06
8Corners9
19Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots16
7On Target3
2Off Target10
2Blocked3
6Inside Box10
5Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
361Total Passes358
277Accurate Passes280
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
1.26Goals Prevented1.26
Discipline
19Fouls13
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Liga MX: Puebla 1–1 FC Juarez

Puebla and FC Juarez drew 1-1 in Liga MX on April 4, 2026.

Goals: I. Moreno (55'), Madson (77').

Puebla controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.