FC Juarez 4–4 Puebla: Result & Stats | Liga MX

FC Juarez

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Puebla

J. Murillo 73'

Guilherme Castilho 48'

O. Estupinan 37' (pen)

Madson 25'

L. Rey 90', 45'

A. Araos 88'

E. Gomez 70'

10/25/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Juarez54%

×Draw22%

Puebla25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC JuarezExpected goals in this matchPuebla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.30

FC Juarez

2.01

Puebla

1.30

FC Juarez creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.69

creates per match

0.96

1.65

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

FC Juarez

1.69

Puebla

0.96

allows per match

FC Juarez

1.65

Puebla

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Puebla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw

75%

FC Juarez or Puebla

78%

Draw or Puebla

46%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+

31%

Puebla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals

87%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

59%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

32%

Puebla 1+ goals

73%

Puebla 2+ goals

37%

Puebla 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

69%

Puebla (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Puebla away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.69 + Puebla defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.01

Puebla attack 0.96 + FC Juarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Juarez scores more

54%

level

22%

Puebla scores more

25%

FC Juarez at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Rey

Puebla · M

9.5

Match Events

25'

Madson

36'

Guilherme CastilhoPenalty confirmed

37'

O. EstupinanPenalty

43'

C. Baltazar← W. Portales

45'

Jesús Murillo

45'

L. Rey

48'

Guilherme Castilho↳ Puma

50'

Efrain Orona

58'

F. Monarrez← E. Navarro

58'

A. Araos← R. Marin

65'

Edgar Guerra

70'

E. Gomez

73'

J. Murillo↳ Guilherme Castilho

74'

M. Ramirez← A. Organista

74'

B. Garnica← E. Guerra

78'

R. Fulgencio← Madson

84'

D. Valoyes← R. Pizarro

84'

Ricardinho← Puma

88'

A. Araos↳ E. Gomez

89'

J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza← H. E. Martinez Yepez

89'

A. Zaldivar← O. Estupinan

90+2'

Raymundo Fulgencio

90'

L. Rey↳ F. Monarrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCPuebla

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots17

4Corners10

11Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots17

8On Target8

7Off Target5

2Blocked4

10Inside Box12

7Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

398Total Passes424

343Accurate Passes357

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1