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FC Juarez vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Puebla
Puebla
Á. Zaldívar 84'
Aitor García 62', 52'
Edson Fernando 45'
M. Sansores 90'
S. Ormeño 66'
L. Cavallini 15'
3/24/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FC Juarez54%
×Draw22%
Puebla25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
2.01
Puebla
1.30

FC Juarez creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.69
Puebla
0.96

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.65
Puebla
2.33

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
75%
FC Juarez or Puebla
78%
Draw or Puebla
46%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
31%
Puebla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
87%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
59%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
32%
Puebla 1+ goals
73%
Puebla 2+ goals
37%
Puebla 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
69%
Puebla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Puebla away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.69 + Puebla defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.01

Puebla attack 0.96 + FC Juarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Juarez scores more
54%
level
22%
Puebla scores more
25%

FC Juarez at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
Aitor GarcíaFC JuarezFC Juarez · F
8.2

Match Events

15'
L. Cavallini↳ B. Angulo
26'
Ralph Orquin
31'
L. García← D. Álvarez
45'
Edson Fernando↳ J. Torres
46'
Aitor García← A. Hurtado
52'
Aitor García↳ J. Venegas
61'
S. Ormeño← M. Barragán
62'
Aitor García↳ J. Venegas
66'
S. Ormeño↳ A. Herrera
67'
J. García← Edson Fernando
68'
Á. Zaldívar← M. Santos
68'
M. Castro← J. Torres
76'
M. Sansores← L. Cavallini
76'
F. Navarro← A. Herrera
77'
Á. Robles← Gustavo Ferrareis
82'
J. Salas← J. Venegas
84'
Á. Zaldívar↳ D. Villalpando
90'
M. Sansores↳ K. Velasco

Possession

47%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCPuebla
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots18
6Corners4
9Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots18
6On Target7
5Off Target8
3Blocked3
6Inside Box11
8Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
398Total Passes459
320Accurate Passes369
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Juarez vs Puebla

FC Juarez beat Puebla 4-3 in Liga MX on March 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Cavallini (15'), Edson Fernando (45'), Aitor García (52', 62'), S. Ormeño (66'), Á. Zaldívar (84'), M. Sansores (90').

Puebla controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.