Puebla 2–3 FC Juarez: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FC Juarez

L. Quiñones 90+8', 47' (pen)

Ó. Estupiñán 90+5' (pen)

J. García 68'

J. Torres 40'

9/28/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Puebla38%

×Draw25%

FC Juarez37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.44

Puebla

1.47

FC Juarez

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.11

creates per match

1.14

1.74

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Puebla

1.11

FC Juarez

1.14

allows per match

Puebla

1.74

FC Juarez

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

63%

Puebla or FC Juarez

75%

Draw or FC Juarez

62%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

18%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

77%

Puebla 2+ goals

43%

Puebla 3+ goals

18%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

76%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

42%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

51%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.11 + FC Juarez defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

FC Juarez attack 1.14 + Puebla defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puebla scores more

38%

level

25%

FC Juarez scores more

37%

Puebla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Gustavo Ferrareis

Puebla · D

8.2

Match Events

29'

34'

37'

40'

46'

46'

J. González← D. Álvarez

47'

L. QuiñonesPenalty

61'

L. García← J. González

67'

Brayan Angulo

67'

Edson Fernando← J. Abella

67'

J. Rodríguez← D. Valoyes

68'

J. García↳ Guilherme Castilho

75'

S. Ormeño← R. Castillo

76'

F. Waller← D. de Buen

76'

A. Herrera← P. González

83'

M. Mosquera← R. Orquin

83'

J. Venegas← J. Torres

86'

Alberto Herrera

90+2'

D. García← D. Villalpando

90+5'

Ó. EstupiñánPenalty

90+8'

L. Quiñones↳ E. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PueblaFC

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots11

9Corners8

13Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target7

10Off Target1

3Blocked3

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

337Total Passes329

254Accurate Passes242

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0