Preussen Munster 2–3 Dynamo Dresden: Result & Stats

Preussen Munster

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Dynamo Dresden

C. Laprevotte 84'

Amaury 82' (pen)

J. Eilers 43', 19'

S. Kutschke 7'

5/7/2016

League #80 · Round 37Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Preussen Munster46%

×Draw25%

Dynamo Dresden29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preussen MunsterExpected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.23

Preussen Munster

1.62

Dynamo Dresden

1.23

Preussen Munster creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.57

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Preussen Munster

1.57

Dynamo Dresden

1.33

allows per match

Preussen Munster

1.14

Dynamo Dresden

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preussen Munster ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Preussen Munster or draw

71%

Preussen Munster or Dynamo Dresden

75%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

54%

Winning margin

Preussen Munster wins by 2+

24%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preussen Munster 1+ goals

80%

Preussen Munster 2+ goals

48%

Preussen Munster 3+ goals

22%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

71%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

35%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Preussen Munster (draw refunded)

62%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preussen Munster at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preussen Munster attack 1.57 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + Preussen Munster defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Preussen Munster scores more

46%

level

25%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

29%

Preussen Munster at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Preussen Munster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Kutschke

19'

J. Eilers

43'

J. Eilers

56'

A. Grimaldi← M. Reichwein

63'

B. Kopplin← K. Schöneberg

64'

N. Hauptmann← M. Stefaniak

72'

Jannik Müller← Q. Moll

78'

A. Amachaibou← L. Stoll

82'

T. Väyrynen← S. Kutschke

82'

AmauryPenalty

84'

C. Laprevotte

Preussen

Dynamo

24

5

4

7

23

16

11

⚽2

Eilers

15

Aosman

21

▼

Moll

34

▼

Stefaniak

30

⚽

▼

Kutschke

1

Lomb

6

▼

24

2

5

25

10

⚽

Amaury

27

Kara

26

⚽

Laprevott

18

▼

Stoll

9

▼

Reichwein

56'▲A. Grimaldi←▼M. Reichwein

63'▲B. Kopplin←▼K. Schöneberg

78'▲A. Amachaibou←▼L. Stoll

Preussen Munster substitutes

39Grimaldi13Kopplin11Amachaibou21Wiebe3Müller8Heitmeier35Schulze-Niehues

64'▲N. Hauptmann←▼M. Stefaniak

72'▲Jannik Müller←▼Q. Moll

82'▲T. Väyrynen←▼S. Kutschke

Dynamo Dresden substitutes

36Hauptmann18Müller9Väyrynen33Schubert6Hartmann20Müller31Andrich

League #80: Preussen Munster 2–3 Dynamo Dresden

Dynamo Dresden beat Preussen Munster 3-2 in League #80 on May 7, 2016.

Goals: S. Kutschke (7'), J. Eilers (19', 43'), Amaury (82' pen), C. Laprevotte (84').

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.

Preussen Munster vs Dynamo Dresden — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #80: Preussen Munster 2–3 Dynamo Dresden