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Dynamo Dresden vs Preussen Munster — League #80 2026

Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Preussen Munster
Preussen Munster
M. Schäffler 11'
10/21/2023League #80League #80 · Round 12Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dynamo Dresden59%
×Draw26%
Preussen Munster15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Dresden
1.50
Preussen Munster
0.59

Dynamo Dresden creates 154% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden
1.33
Preussen Munster
0.86

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden
0.33
Preussen Munster
1.67

finishing

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par
Preussen Munster+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden ↓

Preussen Munster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden or draw
85%
Dynamo Dresden or Preussen Munster
74%
Draw or Preussen Munster
41%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+
31%
Preussen Munster wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals
78%
Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals
44%
Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals
19%
Preussen Munster 1+ goals
45%
Preussen Munster 2+ goals
12%
Preussen Munster 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)
80%
Preussen Munster (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Preussen Munster away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden attack 1.33 + Preussen Munster defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Preussen Munster attack 0.86 + Dynamo Dresden defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dynamo Dresden scores more
59%
level
26%
Preussen Munster scores more
15%

Dynamo Dresden at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Schäffler
19'
Niko Koulis
31'
Kyu-hyun Park
34'
Lars Bünning
34'
Luca Bazzoli
45+2'
Jano ter Horst
46'
R. Preißinger← L. Bazzoli
49'
Simon Scherder
50'
Dennis Borkowski
59'
J. Meier← Park Kyu-Hyun
59'
J. Lemmer← D. Borkowski
70'
J. Grodowski← M. Batmaz
73'
T. Berger← N. Hauptmann
73'
S. Kutschke← M. Schäffler
74'
M. Lorenz← J. ter Horst
87'
Stefan Drljača
89'
Y. Bouchama← D. Kyerewaa
90'
J. Oehmichen← T. Zimmerschied

Possession

57%Dynamo

Shots

19Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoPreussen
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots12
4Corners7
11Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots12
6On Target2
7Off Target8
6Blocked2
Passing
57%Possession43%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls16
4Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Dynamo Dresden vs Preussen Munster

Dynamo Dresden beat Preussen Munster 1-0 in League #80 on October 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Schäffler (11').

Dynamo Dresden controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion in Dresden.