Preußen Münster 2–2 Dynamo Dresden: Result & Stats

Preußen Münster

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo Dresden

10/18/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 9Preussenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster45%

×Draw26%

Dynamo Dresden29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Preußen MünsterExpected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.10

Preußen Münster

1.46

Dynamo Dresden

1.10

Preußen Münster creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

1.26

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Preußen Münster

1.15

Dynamo Dresden

0.94

allows per match

Preußen Münster

1.26

Dynamo Dresden

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

Dynamo Dresden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw

71%

Preußen Münster or Dynamo Dresden

74%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden

55%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+

22%

Dynamo Dresden wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals

77%

Preußen Münster 2+ goals

43%

Preußen Münster 3+ goals

18%

Dynamo Dresden 1+ goals

67%

Dynamo Dresden 2+ goals

30%

Dynamo Dresden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)

61%

Dynamo Dresden (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Dynamo Dresden away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Dynamo Dresden defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dynamo Dresden attack 0.94 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preußen Münster scores more

45%

level

26%

Dynamo Dresden scores more

29%

Preußen Münster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff